by Greg Stanko
Category: Public Affairs
In an interview in today’s Washington Times, soon-to-be-former Alaska governor Sarah Palin tells the world that she will campaign for Republicans and conservative Democrats who share her views. Here are a few thoughts as to her political future.
1. Initial polling gives a mixed message. According to a USA Today/Gallup poll, Republicans’ views of Palin have improved since her announcement, while the view of Independents and Democrats towards the Alaska governor have dropped. A majority (53%) also believe media coverage of her has been unfair. The numbers are not great, but compared to the doom and gloom scenarios that the political punditry on the Republican side of the aisle have been putting forth (see for example Peggy Noonan, Mort Kondracke and others’ comments), it doesn’t look like this was Palin’s Mark Sanford moment, at least for Republican voters.
That said, Republican candidates in key 2009 gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia have been skittish as to whether they will ask Palin to campaign for them. I don’t see how Palin helps Chris Christie (+12 vs. Gov. Jon Corzine in the most recent Rasmussen poll) in the Garden State. As for Virginia, Palin could be helpful in rural areas where Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate, polled very well in the primaries. But does Bob McDonnell (+6 in the most recent Public Policy Poling (D) poll) want to risk a anti-Palin backlash in the vote rich, blue northern Virginia suburbs?
2. The Vanity Fair piece by Todd Purdum may have backfired. On an initial read, the piece was devastating, even for people who were sympathetic to Palin. But on second read, the piece read less of an investigative piece and more of what it really was, a thinly sourced hit piece by disgruntled McCain staffers. When both Media Matters and Bill Kristol agree on something, it means either hell has frozen over or there is some truth to the argument that the piece was unfair.
3. Palin will not be moving to television anytime soon. MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough made a bit of a splash on Mediaite by stating his opinion that Palin would end up on Fox News Channel in Greta van Susteren’s current slot. I think that won’t happen and the evidence from Felix Gillette of the New York Observer is that agents are not clamoring for her services. That is prolly smart. After Palin’s recent feud with David Letterman, I doubt many Hollywood stars would show up on Palin’s couch to discuss their latest project, and I doubt Palin would want to host a weekly show on any of the cable news channels (Fox News Channel or otherwise), much less a daily one. (That said, should MSNBC add her, I would LOVE to see the hand-off between Palin and either Rachel Maddow or Keith Olbermann on a nightly basis.) If she wants to be an evangelist for the conservative wing of the Republican Party, she can’t be tied down with a TV show or even a regular analyst gig.
Yes, I know that Mike Huckabee has a show on FNC (a show I’ve watched all of once so I can’t really comment if it is any good), but, unlike Palin, he needs the show to keep himself a viable candidate for 2012.
However, if we are to take Palin at her word that she needs to make money to pay her legal bils and raise her family, she can prolly make more by giving 3-4 speeches a month at $50,000 a pop and she doesn’t have to worry about the vagaries of hosting a cable news show where she is discussing health care one night and the custody of Michael Jackson’s kids the next.
Long story short, I think it is too early to figure out what Palin will do in 2012 (I don’t think she knows either), but in the short term she will likely be helpful to some Republican candidates (I don’t buy the campaigning for conservative Democrats for a minute), but blow up in the face of others.
In short, we haven’t seen the last of her — for better or for worse.
UPDATE: Palin weighs in on climate change legislation in an op-ed in today’s The Washington Post.
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