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We are quickly approaching the Year of the Dragon, an auspicious year in Asian culture. But what about here and in other places around the world?

The World Economic Forum recently released Global Risks 2012 report, which identifies the issues 469 experts and industry leaders believe will have the greatest impact on society.

At the time the data for the report was compiled, survey respondents believed that world-economic conditions are having a greater impact on society than any other factor. Over the next 10 years, they ranked water supply as the second significant risk.

If we take a step back, these issues and others mentioned in WEF’s report are grounded in political risk. That should be top-of-mind for everyone. Indeed, whether the issue is income disparity, chronic fiscal imbalances, or cyber threats the issue is rooted in political factors. The report does list global governance failure as a Center of Gravity. But far less attention is paid to that macro issue than risks that would be the result of political decisions.

There was a lot of political turmoil in 2011 but the outcome will start to emerge this year. Indeed, the changes in governments in the Middle East will have a profound impact on the cost of energy over the course of the next 11 months. In addition, there are a myriad of policies in the U.S., Europe, Latin America and China that will go into effect this year and will significantly affect the financial sector. And, perhaps just as important, is the lack of progress that won’t be realized in 2012 because of a lack of political decisions on a whole slew of issues, such as land use, that are in dire need of addressing.

It is important to focus on vital issues that ladder up to the macro risks but it will be critically important to keep an eye on the big picture in 2012.

Earlier today, Jared Cohen, a member of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s Policy and Planning staff, spoke at an Ogilvy Exchange presentation on how the State Department is using social media and other Web 2.0 technologies as part of everything it does, ranging from counter-narcotics in Mexico to crisis response in Haiti to advancing social issues in Russia.  C-SPAN covered the speech and we will post a link to the presentation when it becomes available. 

However, in the interim, Jason Miller of Federal News Radio (WFED-AM in Washington) attended the speech and presented a long report on this afternoon’s DorobekInsider program.  The segment runs about 10 minutes.

Sniper ManningLearning how to shoot a sniper rifleMore sniper practice

Marie’s shooting instructor, the very patient Zach Tokash.

Trying on a medic's vest. This is an Army EMT. The vest weighs at least 50 lbs.Making off with leftover MREs. They're so much better than Lean Cuisine…the entrees are more filling with less calories! Does anyone reading this know how I can order some? (I'm only half joking.)

Marie Models a flak jacket and helmet.

Two Golden Dagger jumpers land side by side. (US Army Special Forces)

In front of the Chinook helicopters that took us safely back at day's end.Incoming helicoper directly over head. No zoom lens on this one! I was lying flat on my back on the ground to get this shot.Lt. Gen. John Mulholland, Commanding General, US Army Special Operations Command

Marie stops the C17

Totally staged but totally fabulous

If you’re reading this post, you are aware (maybe painfully knowledgeable) of the rapidly changing media landscape.  My colleagues and I are constantly talking about shrinking newspapers and news programs that are devoting less time to news and providing less hard news within the contracted newscast. 

Clearly, the future of the news media is cloudy and that is a shame because we need professional journalists, editors, columnists, photo journalists, producers, editorial writers and op-ed editors to report and provide context.  I know that the digerati believe the social media arena is filling the void and creating new outlets.  I agree (to a degree) but I also believe the social media space is a poor news generation vehicle.  It largely remains a means to circulate news and opinions (some informed and some not so much).

The future of newspapers is a particular concern because it is home to the op-ed.  While a good op-ed can be difficult to craft and unbelievably challenging to place, it is king in the public affairs realm.  There are several reasons why I hail the venerated op-ed.  First, it establishes a company or trade association as a thought leader on a subject, which provides a competitive advantage in the world of ideas, public opinion and policymaking.  Second, it allows a company or association to state its case and advocate for its point of view.  Lastly, it can drive social media. 

Think about this: op-eds are picked up by bloggers, Twitter addicts, Facebook users and people from all corners of the social media universe.  It is the content that the social media sphere craves.  Op-eds are linked to, quoted from, and serve as material for an array of online commentary.

So, social media devotees can join me in hailing the op-ed, which appears to also be the king of the social media empire.

This is a time of unprecedented activity in the national security space.  The country is in the midst of two wars and in a global pursuit of terrorists.  At the same time, President Obama and Secretary Gates are increasing emphasis on hybrid military options and softer power national security options.  And, the Quadrennial Defense Review, a top-down review of military strategy, is underway.

This coming Tuesday, June 30, Ogilvy PR will hold its second lecture in the National Security Lecture series.  We’ll post some of the hightlights on this blog following the event so stay tuned.

Now long ago, I commented on the explosion of Twitter and wondered how I was going to use it in the public affairs arena in new ways that had not been explored. A number of members of Congress either were using Twitter or were on the verge of entering tweeterville, which convinced me that the tool needed to added to the toolbox. I think it was a week or two later that the Washington Post published an article about all the Twittering that was being done during President Obama’s address to the Congress.

I’ve decided that it’s time to expand my ability to communicate and so I have set up a twitter account. You can follow me at http://twitter.com/rorydavenport. Hope you tweet with you soon.

Under the better late than never category, all international affairs junkies should check out the newer blogs - nine of them - at ForeignPolicy.com. 

Some of the blogs are a real hoot, far from the dry stuff that can be widely seen in the foreign policy space.  Hillary’s army will want to check out Madam Sec to follow the happenings at State!

In the current edition of National Journal, Rausch makes a compelling case that reviving the global trade talks and rebuilding the consensus that trade is good may be the key to long-term global economic growth. His suggestion for Team Obama:

First, Obama would publicly announce that concluding the Doha Round is a goal for his first term (though not for his first year, when too much else is going on). “The deal is a do-able deal,” says Rod Hunter, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute and a former trade adviser in the Bush White House. “The question is whether Obama can marshal the political impetus for it.”

Second, the president would make clear that the United States remains committed to trade liberalization at home and abroad, putting an end to his seeming ambivalence, much as Clinton did in embracing balanced-budget orthodoxy in 1993.

Third, he would couple trade liberalization, which conservatives want, with improvements in the safety net, which liberals want. And he would argue the case in tandem, integrating his domestic and international economic agendas as no previous president has quite managed to do.

As I’ve argued before, building that consensus will be very difficult, especially in tough economic times.  That said, it is still a challenge that is worth undertaking. This starts with getting congressional leaders on board.

From Saturday’s Washington Post…

Al-Qaeda Web Forums Abruptly Taken Offline

Separately, Sunnis and Shiites Wage Online War